Hello, dear participants of WellMax international system, clients, partners and investors of International Financial Community.

We continue to inform you about the results of our work and IFC specialists' vision of the processes in the world and regional economies.

In May 2017, the assets value of WellMax investment portfolio increased by 1.02% in USD and EUR that equals to 12.24% per annum. There was a 12.84% yield per annum in rubles, a 11.28% yield - in yuans.

Over the period from May 10, 2017 to June 10, 2017, the assets value of WellMax Premium investment portfolio increased by 2.6% in USD.

The increase in the assets value of WellMax Premium investments portfolio in the previous month is connected with the positive price dynamics of a number of assets in the portfolio. So, for example, the decline in prices for natural gas in the US, observed from the end of May influenced the increase in the value of assets, as shown in the chart below.

This fall in prices, in its turn, is associated with a lower temperature in comparison with the long-term average temperature for a given time of the year in the key regions of the US that are key in terms of summer gas consumption: on the East and West coasts of the country, as well as in the states adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, which is reflected in the chart below (source: NOAA National Weather Service).

It should also be noted that on June 15, 2017 we closed our short positions in natural gas and transferred the funds to UGAZ instrument aimed at making profit at the increase in gas prices, which we expect before the start of the heating season (October / November) due to decrease of extraction volumes under the conditions of expected increased summer consumption of natural gas for power generation.

In addition, the growth in the assets value of WellMax Premium investment portfolio was affected by the growth of silver quotations on the stock exchange and the shares of American company producing solar PV modules First Solar Inc., as well as decline of Russian stock market against the background of weak oil prices and the risk of sanctions regime tightening.

At the same time, it should be noted that slight increase in assets value during last month and slight decrease in their value a month earlier are more of technical nature. The structure of our investment portfolio is largely focused on the medium and long-term prospective. The assets expected to increase their prices in the next 12 months and mentioned in our previous economic survey include the shale gas producers in the US (such as Southwestern Energy and Antero Resources), pharmaceutical giant Gilead Science Inc. and exchange funds in the field of robotics. In addition, we maintain our forecast for the growth of prices of cocoa beans at the stock exchange before the end of this year/early next year.

Strong price movements were observed last month in the oil market. As it was predicted in the previous economic survey, the price of crude oil was under strong pressure of a number of negative factors. The drop in oil quotations began on May 25 immediately after the announcement of the results of OPEC meeting in Vienna at which the member countries of the Agreement of oil production reduction decided to extend the deal for 9 months, until March 31, 2018 under the same terms.

In view of the fact that the terms of Agreement (9 months under the same terms) were announced by the Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources of Saudi Arabia Khaled Al Faleh and the Minister of Energy of Russia Alexander Novak on May 15 in China, this factor was taken into account in the price for crude oil even before the meeting in Vienna. Also market participants hoped that the Agreement would be prolonged for at least a year, and the volumes of reduction would be increased. Thus, preservation of "former terms" of the oil pact led to a large-scale profit fixation for price raise by players and resulted in a drop in the price of Brent oil at the end of May 25 by 4.6% according to the results of trades.

In the following days, the sale continued against the background of fears that measures taken by OPEC to reduce oil production at raise of oil production in the US and further increase in drilling activity could not significantly contribute to reducing fuel supplies in the global market, even in the coming summer car season.

Data on commercial oil reserves in the US, the reduction of which for the past three weeks was significantly lower than it was expected by analysts also influenced oil quotes.

In addition, the negative impact on the price of "black gold" was provided by data of OPEC June report published on June 13, according to which crude oil production by cartel countries increased by 336.1 thousand barrels per day as compared to April - up to 32.139 million barrels per day, mainly due to Libya and Nigeria, which we described as a risk factor for crude oil prices in the previous economic survey.

According to our analysts, during the next few months the oil market is likely to remain high volatile. In the short term, we do not exclude a small rebound of oil quotes from the current levels, but in the medium term, prices will be under strong pressure while maintaining the status quo in the balance of supply and demand. At the same time, it should be noted that the weakness of crude oil prices is primarily due to the growth in oil production in the USA which, in turn, is provided by the growth of shale mining. Despite the fact that the current prices are comfortable for American shale oil producers, preservation of the current price levels for a long time under the conditions of a growing rate of the US Federal Reserve may bring to reduction in investment programs of shale oil producers, most of which have high debt load which, in turn, will have negative impact on the prospects for further growth in crude oil production in the United States.

Whereas, Russian national currency is likely to have exhausted its potential for strengthening, as evidenced by impossibility of the ruble to entrench confidently below the level of 56.5 rubles per US dollar, as we indicated in the February economic survey. In our opinion, weakening of Russian ruble in the near future will continue due to the continued narrowing of the gap between the key rates of US and Russia, which adversely affects the interest of foreign speculative capital in the ruble assets (for more about "carry trade" see February economic survey).

However, taking into account the pre-election specifics of the current year, the Russian authorities will most likely try to avoid strong weakening and abrupt changes in the national currency. The proof of this point is the statement made by Vladimir Putin during the "Straight Line" on June 15, namely: "The main thing for us today is not even this key rate, the most important thing is that it does not change sharply. We need to ensure the stability of the national currency, stability of the ruble. In this sense, the Central Bank acts very carefully." Noteworthy is the fact that the statement was made the day before the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, where the issue of interest rate lowering and the possibility of initiating foreign exchange interventions in the domestic market will be discussed.

At the same time, the downward trend in the crude oil market continues to have negative impact on the ruble, as well as the risk of tightening of the sanctions regime on the part of the US as described above. Given the set of factors affecting the rate, we maintain our forecast for gradual and smooth weakening of the Russian currency by the end of the current year/ beginning of the next year by 10% or more from the level of 56.5 rubles for 1 US dollar.

We should note the meeting of the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve System of the United States which took place on June 14 as one of the most important economic events that affects both the ruble and other currencies and the global economy as a whole. During this meeting it was decided to raise the base interest rate by 0.25 pct, up to 1-1.25%. In addition, the head of the Federal Reserve System Janet Yellen said at the press conference following the meeting that the US Federal Reserve may “very soon” begin to reduce the bonds on its balance sheet, which not only could lead to strengthening of the US dollar, but also to increase in the yield of government bonds and the flow of funds into them from the American stock market, as we wrote in the March economic survey. In addition, this could lead to weakening of the euro against the US dollar and change in the trend in this currency pair.

It is necessary to note that among the risk factors that could hamper the strengthening of the US dollar that began on the market is unstable political situation in the US, where the scandal continues around US President Donald Trump who in early May dismissed the head of the FBI, James Komi. On June 9 he, in turn, spoke at a hearing in the Senate Intelligence Committee where he said that Trump asked him, among other things, to remain loyal and stop the investigation against Michael Flynn.

The revelations of the former FBI director made a real sensation in the American political life and led not only to a drop in the rating of the US President (according to the latest Gallup data about 60% of Americans do not approve the President's activity) but also to activate various legal procedures against the head of the White House. So, on June 14 it became known that the special prosecutor Robert Muller, who was investigating possible connections between Donald Trump and Russia, became interested in special cases of obstruction of justice by the US President. In addition, on the same day, about 200 members of the US Congress from the Democratic Party filed a class action lawsuit against the President Trump, accusing him of violating the ban on making profits from representatives of foreign countries. The document was signed by at least 30 senators and 166 members of the House of Representatives.

The unraveling flywheel of the scandal surrounding the current administration forced observers and experts to talk again about the possibility of impeachment of the President. At this stage, we continue to consider the impeachment option unlikely because the Democrats do not have a majority in both chambers of the US Parliament, but given the escalation of the conflict between the establishment and the President, the drop in its rating, as well as the lack of real actions of the new administration in domestic and foreign policy, we do not exclude this development of events in the future and take it into account in our forecasts and investments.

At the same time, volatility in the European markets has significantly decreased after the victory of the supporters of Emmanuel Macron, Movement "En Marche!" in the first round of the elections to the National Assembly. Despite the fact that the party is ahead of the second round of elections scheduled for June 18 most analysts agree that representatives of the new head of state will dominate the lower house of parliament of the Fifth Republic.

Relative stability was established in the UK where, despite the unsuccessful results of early parliamentary elections, Theresa May agreed to form a coalition with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, which would allow the Tories, who did not gain a simple majority in the parliament following the early elections, to form a government, and for Mrs. Prime-Minister to keep the post and continue her political course towards Britain's withdrawal from the EU.

Despite the presence of the above-mentioned risks associated with Donald Trump, the acute phase of uncertainty has been left behind and a period of summer of reduced business activity has come on the markets. At the same time, we closely follow the economic and political events in the world and continue to build our investment portfolio from assets that are not only less vulnerable to the current risks, but also have good growth prospects in the medium and long term prospective, which will give us the possibility to please the investors and partners of International Financial Community with profitability!