Октябрь 2016
In October 2016, the assets value of the WellMax investment portfolio increased by 1.17% in USD and EUR, which is equivalent to 14.04% per annum. The annual yield amounted to 16.56% in rubles and to 13.44% in yuans.
From October 10th till November 10th, 2016, the assets value of the WellMax Premium investment portfolio increased by 53.7% in dollars that is equivalent to 612.5% per annum.
The assets value of the WellMax Premium investment portfolio has grown in large part because of successful trade operations in the US market of natural oil. In accordance with our forecast, a combination of such fundamental factors as the high level of natural gas reserves in underground storage, the abnormally warm weather set at the East Coast and in the central part of the US in October and as a consequence, the prolongation of gas injections into underground storage started pushing down the price of natural gas.However, in less than a month, from October 13 till November 8, 2016 the price of natural gas futures has dropped down from 3.53 USD per 1 million BTU to 2.63 USD per 1 million BTU that is shown in the picture below.
We chose DGAZ (Velocity Shares) as an instrument for natural gas investment. DGAZ is an inverse marginal ETN (exchange-traded index note) tracking opposite dynamics of the two closest natural gas futures (growth of gas price is equal to price drop of the exchange-traded note). Besides we were certain of our forecast and invested into the 3x leveraged marginal note. Thus, in case of the basic asset price drop (i.e. natural gas futures) by 1%, price of the note will increase by 3% and vice versa.
As far as in August we had foreseen the present situation in the US natural gas market, we had an opportunity to weigh up all factors influencing the market and evaluate possible risks. Therefore when at the beginning of October there was speculative growth of the gas price we didn`t exit the position but increased the volume of funds invested into DGAZ. As you can see in the picture below (DGAZ price chart for the last month), the IFC forecast scored.
Accurate forecasting and efficient risk management let our clients and us obtain impressive profit in gas sector.
Successful operations in corporate securities market either contributed to the increase in the assets value of the WellMax Premium investment portfolio. Thus, Pay Pal Holdings, Inc. shares which had been purchased in summer showed significant growth in October against the backdrop of the 3rd quarter`s good figures and reached a historic high of 44.15 USD that is shown in the price chart for the last 3 months.
Investments into ValeS.A., a Brazilian mining company,also delivered benefits. Its shares increased in value amid price growth for its main products, nickel and iron ore.
As we had expected, the end of October/beginning of November turned out to be rather tumultuous due to unpredictabilityof the US election race. While worldwide investors were trying to detect the front-runner, the IFC team got the benefit from the increased volatility in markets.
As an instrument, we chose the so-called 'Index of Fear' - CBOEVolatilityIndex (VIX). This index grows when investors expect an increase of volatility in the US stock market.
The news on the FBI`s reopened investigation against the US presidential nominee Hillary Clinton made again the world mass media talk about Donald Trump as a possible new resident of the White House. The renewed intrigue and the candidates` opposite views of many economic and political issues caused the increased volatility in markets regarding prospects of the American economy that influenced growth of VIX in its turn.
Up to November 8, investors had considered Hillary Clinton as the front-runner. Among other things she is famous for her criticism against biotechnological companies overpricing medicines. Taking into account the investor sentiments, the IFC team decided to buy securities of UltraShortNasdaqBiotechnology (BIS), an exchange-traded fund tracking NASDAQBiotechnologyIndex and copying its return in an opposite way. However, we had exited the position before results of the presidential race were announced. It helped us to avoid price drop of the fund securities that followed the news on Donald Trump`s victory.
It`s rather possible that Mr. Trump`s victory will cause increase in volatility in financial markets, since the newly elected president is apt to make strong statements.Given thatDonald Trump is a stranger to politics and governance, the Executive Office will play a significant role in the US foreign and domestic policy formation. Thus, a lot will depend on its staff and certain people on key positions, their views, political and professional past experience.
Mr. Trump`s economic program also raises questions. However, going by the ambitious plans and vast promises soundedby the newly elected president during the election campaign, even partial implementation of them will lead to increase of government expenditures and spreading budget deficit consequently. Then it may result in bonds cheapening, equivalent to growth of their yields and may launch inflation processes all over the world. Combination of these factors may adversely affect exchange rates of the national currencies in developing countries.
Trump`s election promise to devote 500 billion USD for infrastructural projects may maintain value growth of metals (copper, nickel, etc.) and positively influence shares of the development corporations and companies producing special-purpose machines, such as CaterpillarInc.
In the course of the election campaign, Trump used to announce that he would reduce dependence of the US on foreign oil. It can be implemented either by augmentation of domestic oil production, or by active using 485 million barrels of commercial crude stockpiles. If the plans are executed, the price for black gold will break through the lower line of 42-52 USD per Brent barrel. The Vienna meeting of OPEC ministers scheduled on November 30, 2016 will probably support the price of oil. However, due to strong contradictions within the organization, it is possible that even positive news from the Austrian capital will just slightly influence the market.
Special mention should be made of Trump`s attitude towards Mexico and the problem of illegal emigration. Due to his rather strong statements declared during the campaign, we can expect weakening of the Mexican pesoagainst the main currencies.
Eccentric billionaire Donald Trump elected the 45thpresident of the United States will inaugurate a new unstable period in financial markets worldwide. With regard to Mr. Trump`s disposition for strong statements and quick change of opinion, it is very possible that there are frequent changes of investors` moods and unstable situation in financial markets in store for us.
However, some things will remain unaltered: our deep and accurate analysis, abilities to consider news flows and make quick investment decisions. All these competencies let IFC please its investors and partners with results of the company`s activity again and again.