In August 2016, the assets value of the WellMax investment portfolio increased by 1.07% in USD and EUR, which corresponds to 12.84% per annum. The annual yield of WellMax amounted to 15% in rubles and 12.36% in yuans.

As in July, successful operation in the commodity segment, where there were large price movements, made a significant contribution to the profitability of WellMax. In particular, we were able to make profit on the changes of natural gas quotations, which in the first half of the month showed weakness (as we predicted, a decline of about 15%), and then moved to growth. Anyway, we believe that this growth was temporary and was due to an increase in energy consumption for air conditioning in the United States, which was caused by unexpectedly hot weather.

Another raw material asset, contributing to an increase in the value of the WellMax investment portfolio in August, was silver. Decrease in quotations of the precious metal was expected for us, and brought our investors and us a significant profit.

In other aspects, as we said in our previous review, August was a period of low activity, a kind of calm in anticipation of the new business year, the beginning of which promises to be eventful.

One of the most important events in September, and, perhaps, throughout the autumn, could be meeting of the OPEC relevant ministers at the International Energy Forum, which will take place in Algeria at the end of the month. Changing disposition on the world political arena, the prolonged period of not enough comfortable oil prices for the budgets of the major producing countries, the growing surplus of oil on world markets and the likely achievement of the technical "ceiling" of production by number of states - all this creates real prerequisites for achieving the long-awaited agreement on limiting the oil production volumes. Clear signals from the Russian Federation on its readiness to support the OPEC decision, as well as the possibility of joint actions of Russia and Saudi Arabia to stabilize oil prices increase the probability of positive news for the oil market after the Energy Forum in Algiers.

However, despite the increasing probability of acceptance and implementation of decision on for the freeze of production, as well as a number of other prerequisites for upward dynamics of quotations, the future of the oil market does not look rosy. An important factor of instability in commodity markets, first of all - the markets for oil and precious metals, is the growing expectations of the increase of the US Federal Reserve’s key rates. We believe that probability of a rate growth before the end of the year is high, not excluding the possibility of deciding on the next FRS meeting on 21 September.

Opposite news flows, events and expectations make it possible to expect the increased volatility of oil prices, and it would be increasingly difficult to stay behind the corridor of 45 - 55 $ per barrel of Brent as we predicted at the end of February. It is likely that the destruction of this corridor we will see in September.

Completion of the electoral cycle in the US, the growing activity of Russian foreign policy, the formation of new alliances and configurations in the Middle East make it possible to expect the autumn, intensive with political events, some of which could have significant economic consequences. The most important of these events, of course, are submitted to the US presidential elections, the news background around which will have an impact on many markets.

We confirm our August forecast on continuation of moderately downward dynamics in prices for natural gas in September and do not rule out some weakening of the ruble after the Duma elections in the Russian Federation. The subsequent behavior of these assets, will depend much on the state of the oil market.

The strengthening of the international position of the Russian Federation, in particular - the rapprochement with Turkey will support the ruble, which has positive significance for the economies of both countries.

To replace the period of low economic activity comes a very turbulent and information-rich period. For our customers and us this opens up new possibilities, because the ability to analyze the news flow and the ability to quickly make investment decisions have been and remain strong part of IFC.