Февраль-март 2016

This review covers two months: February and March. This allows to make the review more informative in the conditions of high uncertainty which ruled the markets in February and during the first half of March waiting for proceedings of the central banks in the European area and the USA.

For February and March of 2016 the assets value of the WellMax investment portfolio increased by 2.1%, it means that average profitability of WellMax accounted to 12.6% in EUR and USD per annum. For the same period, WellMax showed the approximate result of 17% per annum in rubles and 13% per annum in yuans.

China seems to stand under the weight of the accumulated problems. The tree of the Chinese economy turned out to be enoughstrong and flexible to confront powerful gusts breaking the stability in the Chinese markets for more than half a year. There is a whole range of March indicators proving the stabilization of China`s economy, for example, those, which demonstrate a rally in the real estate market and recovery of the construction sector. But, justa little while ago many people thought that there could be long and hard economic troubles in store for China!

Greater than expected stability of the second world`s economy and improving prospects of its recovery lead to reconsideration of the forecast promising the yuan`s devaluation in the future, which seems to be not so obvious in the following months.

In March, positive signs from East and passable news on the American economy against the background of the continuing diminution of working drilling rigs in America supported the black gold quotations, though Iran`s attitude towards extraction restraining was not very convenient for oil prices.

Generally advantageous environment in the markets of raw materials helped us to make profit out of the oil-producing companies` shares in March. A prominent contribution to WellMax profitability was also made with the gold-mining assets, and also, with commodities goods and assets, such as sugar, for example.

For the near future the main suspense of the oil market is still the Doha energy summit scheduled on the 17th of April, which will be attended by the main oil-producing countries of the world. Would they be able to reach any certain agreements for the price stabilization, and then observe them? Thequestionisopen. In the estimation of most analysts of the greatest investment houses, this probability is not more than 50%.

However, specialists share the view thatthe Doha decision can have significant but hardly long influence upon the oil prices disposition. If the extraction restraining agreements are reached and observed, we can wait for a temporary hike of Brent oil prices up to 65$ p/b, followed by a drop till 45-55$ p/b. In case of absence or non-compliance with important agreements, quotations can fall to 35$ p/b.

Yet, independent of the Doha summit decisions, it is likely to be that after some short situational swings Brent oil prices will be fixed at 45-55$ p/b for the near 6-8 months. The prices will be held at the low border of the range by anticipations for growing demand for energy carriers inspired by looking up prospects of the world economy together with a softer than expected monetary policy of developed countries. The “ceiling” will be restrained with the light tight oil production increase stimulated by price rise.

In March the most important events of the world economy and markets were the decisions announced at the meetings of the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve System in the middle of the month. It should be reminded that the ECB lowered the main interest rates on the March 10th.  For the first time ever in the history of Europe the refi rate amounts to zero, and the deposit rate is lowered to minus 0.4%. Shortly after, on the March, 15th the US FRS saved the interest rates at the current level accompanying the decision with rather soft rhetoric.

These events were positively met by investors. In particular, restore of interest for the assets of developing countries is a witness to the mood improvement. There is a continuation of the world trend for decrease in profitability of bank deposits, denominated in hard currency, that makes the advantages of WellMax even more significant, and the product attracts more and more investors worldwide. And the constantly broadening geography of WellMax clients proves it. Thus, we are glad to mention that now WellMax is represented in Mexico. 

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