Ноябрь 2015

Over the period from the 1st to the 30th of November 2015, the assets value of the WellMax investment portfolio increased by 1.14%, i.e. last month, the annual yield of WellMax amounted to 13.68%.

November was peculiar because of the absence of significant changes in most markets in anticipation of the three most important events of the year’s end - the meeting of the European Central Bank, the OPEC conference and meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Under these conditions, the greatest impact on the profitability of WellMax had standard for IFC investment instruments, mainly - bonds. The provision of additional income was due to the fixation of profit by increasing prices for sugar, which took place in November according to our forecasts presented in the October review.

Despite the relative stability observed on the stock exchanges in November, some resonant events yet had a major impact on individual markets and instruments. We are talking about events such as the crash of the Russian airliner A321, acknowledged as the terrorist attack in mid-November, the November terrorist attacks in Paris and the attack of the Russian military aircraft by the Turkish Air Force. The consequences of these events have forced to change the geopolitical picture of the Middle East and set in motion the region's markets. So, at the time of this writing, the Turkish market shares fell by 18% percent, while the rate of the Turkish lira to the US dollar declined by nearly 10%. In addition, we expect further changes in the stock estimation of the Turkish economy to the downside.

As we reported in our October review, China's economy continues to experience growth problems, in order to promote which the Chinese authorities are pursuing a policy of gradual devaluation of the yuan. China's national currency has been decreasing during the whole November and continues to weaken, despite the fact that yuan was included in the list of reserve currencies of International Monetary Fund.

Low oil prices continue to positively impact on the US economy. In November, there was an increase of such important indicators as employment, hourly earnings and number of constructions of private houses.

Looking ahead, we should emphasize the weak oil factor. The December OPEC's decision can be called expected, and for a long time more (at least half a year), we expect the low oil prices. This is  the result of the still significant production of shale oil, huge reserves of oil in commercial storage (the largest reserves in 80 years), the possible lack of space in the US stores (filling about 94%), the expected yield of Iran on the oil market, as well as record levels production in Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation.

We expect that in early 2016 the oil market will continue to experience nervousness and volatility with the possibility of further reduction in prices. Consequently, there is possible increase in pressure on the currency of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan.

However, the struggle for the oil market is, in our opinion, comes into a decisive phase and after the strong and sudden changes could be followed by a quiet period of price growth in the next 2-3 years.

Lifting of sanctions against Iran, the consequences of the December Federal Reserve System meeting and the ongoing military operations in Syria will bring major news on the stock markets and influence them.

 

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